After a surge in demand and soaring prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, northern Palm Beach County’s real estate market is showing signs of stabilization. The dramatic wave of buyers from the Northeast has slowed, and market fundamentals now point to a more balanced environment rather than a downturn.

Bradley Hurst, a leading agent at Illustrated Properties and among Real Producers’ top 1.5% nationally in 2024, has closely followed these changes in Jupiter and Tequesta. With a strong focus on these local communities, Hurst offers a detailed view of trends that broader regional reports often overlook.

Migration Trends Settle Back to Pre-Pandemic Rates

The influx of buyers relocating from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey to Florida has moderated since the height of the pandemic. Hurst attributes the earlier spike in migration to an acceleration of plans rather than a permanent increase. “I think what happened with COVID was it just accelerated people’s plans. It didn’t change them,” Hurst says. Many buyers who would have moved in 2024 or 2025 instead relocated during the pandemic, temporarily reducing the future pool of potential movers.

This “pull-forward” effect is what Hurst refers to as “cannibalism” in migration data: the market borrowed future demand, leading to a temporary dip in new arrivals now. However, the underlying appeal of Florida for out-of-state buyers remains strong. Hurst notes that political changes, such as recent mayoral shifts in New York City, may prompt some additional buyers to consider Florida, but he expects this will be limited in scope and focused mainly on the luxury segment. “I think you’ll get people that were already wanting to leave, and maybe that’s their final straw,” he says, particularly for higher-end properties.

Inventory and Sales Data Indicate Market Stability

Recent market data from Jupiter and surrounding areas show that the local real estate market is holding steady, even as other parts of Florida report challenges. In Jupiter, single-family home inventory declined 17.6% year-over-year, dropping from 5.1 months in September 2024 to 4.2 months in September 2025. At the same time, closed sales increased by 28%, indicating that buyers remain active and properties are moving when priced correctly.

“The inventory is down, but closings are up,” Hurst observes, describing a market where both buyers and sellers are adjusting to new realities. This combination suggests that demand continues to absorb available inventory, even as interest rates and economic uncertainty remain in the background.

Price Corrections Bring Market Back to Earth

Prices in Jupiter have adjusted after pandemic-era highs, with the median sales price down 10% year-over-year. Hurst has helped clients navigate these changes, including a recent sale where owners who bought in 2023 for $1.33 million sold for $1.285 million—a modest loss after factoring in transaction costs.

Hurst addresses these realities directly with clients. “We’re probably not going to be able to get that price. When you factor in real estate commissions and documentary stamps on the deed and title insurance, you’re going to take a little bit of a loss,” he explains. Despite these adjustments, Hurst does not see a continuing slide. “If you look at where the numbers are in terms of average sales price, they’re flat. I think we’re getting close to leveling off.”

This flattening suggests the market is moving past the correction phase that followed the pandemic boom. Sellers who price realistically are finding buyers, while buyers have more negotiating power than during the height of the frenzy.

Insurance Costs Begin to Ease

A key obstacle for Florida homeowners in recent years has been the steep rise in property insurance costs, driven by storm risks and a shrinking pool of insurers. Hurst reports that this trend is showing signs of reversal. He cites a Jupiter condo community where monthly fees fell from $1,025 to $843 after insurance premiums dropped.

“We are seeing new carriers entering the market,” Hurst says, mentioning companies like Tailrow that focus on older homes in Palm Beach County. The arrival of new insurers is increasing competition and giving property owners more options. This is a notable improvement from the recent past, when condo fees in coastal areas jumped from about $650 to over $1,000 per month due to rising insurance costs.

The easing of insurance premiums is an important development for both current residents and potential buyers, reducing one of the major cost pressures that had threatened to slow the market further.

Expertise Matters in a Complex Market

Navigating these market shifts requires both local knowledge and analytical skill. Hurst’s background in corporate finance gives him a data-driven approach to real estate, which is especially valuable for high-net-worth clients who expect precise advice and discretion.

“Having that business background where you’re on the computer all day, you’re going from one software system to another,” Hurst says, helps him manage transactions efficiently and communicate clearly with clients. He also embraces technology, using tools like ChatGPT to boost productivity and stay ahead in a rapidly changing market.

But it is Hurst’s deep roots in the area—he was born in Palm Beach Gardens in 1983 and knows Jupiter, Tequesta, and nearby communities intimately—that set him apart. “I can literally have a phone call with someone in New York or New Jersey, and they tell me what they’re looking for in terms of a neighborhood, and I don’t even have to get on the computer. I can just say, ‘Here’s three or four neighborhoods that we need to look at for you.’” This firsthand knowledge provides clients with an advantage that algorithms and generic search tools cannot match.

Seasonal Patterns Poised to Return

Hurst expects the market to return to more predictable seasonal patterns, with increased activity during winter months as part-time residents and visitors return. The pandemic disrupted these cycles, as many seasonal buyers became full-time residents or delayed travel due to uncertainty.

“I think we’re going to get back to a more normal seasonal pattern that we saw before COVID,” Hurst predicts. “The last few years, it was kind of hard to predict the season because there were more full-time residents that were typically snowbirds.”

Seasonal rentals remain a key source of future buyers. Renters often decide to purchase after spending a season in the area, and Hurst expects this pipeline to strengthen as travel and work arrangements settle into new routines.

Market Outlook: Stability with Measured Optimism

Despite price corrections and shifts in inventory, Hurst remains optimistic about the future of northern Palm Beach County’s real estate market. The combination of stabilizing home prices, improving insurance conditions, and the likely return of seasonal buyers creates a solid foundation for ongoing sales activity.

“As long as these interest rates stay kind of where they’re at, or maybe even go down a little bit, and as long as the stock market kind of stays where it’s at, I’m pretty optimistic,” Hurst says.

Market data supports this view. Even after absorbing significant price adjustments, the region maintains strong transaction volume—a sign of ongoing demand and market health. Buyers are more selective and sellers have adjusted expectations, but deals are happening, and the pace of sales reflects a market that has found its footing.

In summary, the northern Palm Beach County market is no longer in the throes of a pandemic-driven boom, nor is it facing a bust. Instead, it is settling into a period of normalization, with steady demand, manageable inventory, and improving insurance costs. For buyers and sellers alike, this marks a return to a more sustainable and predictable real estate environment.