The multifamily industry is learning that maintenance decisions made in a tenant’s first 90 days can significantly affect lease renewals, with new research indicating that maintenance experience alone can shift churn rates by more than 13 percentage points.

As rental markets face ongoing pressure and rent growth slows, property managers are focusing on operational factors within their control. A study of over 110,000 first-year leases has shown that maintenance operations—long regarded as a cost center—may be one of the most effective tools for maintaining net operating income.

The Financial Impact of Early Maintenance Issues

Research conducted by Property Meld, using their maintenance database, found that lease churn rates can range from 20% to 33.6% based solely on first-year maintenance experiences. This 13.6 percentage point gap carries substantial financial implications for property owners and managers.

“You’re talking about altering the value of multifamily buildings,” says Ray Hespen, CEO and co-founder of Property Meld. “If you have a different renewal rate, your building is worth significantly more. You’re talking about altering the bottom line.”

The study identified specific repair types that pose the greatest risk for tenant turnover when they occur within the first 90 days of occupancy. Air conditioning issues are the most significant, increasing lease churn likelihood by 98.5%. Toilet problems follow at 93.7%, and dishwasher issues contribute to a 67.4% increase in churn risk.

Beyond Speed: The Assignment Factor

While quick repairs remain important to tenant satisfaction, the research highlighted an important insight about assignment timing. The speed with which a maintenance request is assigned to a technician, distinct from how quickly it is completed, has a notable impact on renewal likelihood.

“When you assign it, you let the tenant know that it’s being taken care of,” Hespen says. “There is an assumption that actually letting the tenant know you’ve got somebody on the job has a very strong correlation to satisfaction.”

For air conditioning issues, properties that took 12.7% longer to assign repairs saw tenants move into the high-risk churn category, even if the overall repair completion time was unchanged.

The Communication Sweet Spot

It is commonly believed that more communication with tenants is always better, but the data reveals a more nuanced reality. The study found an optimal range of five to nine total communication touchpoints during a repair process. Both excessive and insufficient communication are linked to poor outcomes.

“Too much communication is actually a symptom of problems,” Hespen says. “You can imagine symptoms of maybe missed appointments or other issues. Once you exceed that sweet spot, it becomes problematic.”

This finding encourages property managers to focus on communication quality and timing, rather than simply increasing frequency.

Operational Implications for Property Managers

The research suggests property managers should fundamentally change their approach to maintenance prioritization. Instead of treating all repairs equally or prioritizing only by urgency, the data supports a risk-based strategy that considers tenant retention.

Properties can now identify tenants at high risk for non-renewal based on their maintenance history and adjust service delivery accordingly. When a high-risk tenant submits a maintenance request, the focus shifts from cost optimization to maximizing satisfaction.

“I know this is a lease churn risk, who’s got the best likelihood to make the tenant happy, period?” Hespen says. “Cost is secondary, because at this point you’re talking about a $5,000 lease churn. I don’t care about $150.”

Technology and Predictive Maintenance

Looking ahead, Hespen anticipates the industry will move toward more advanced predictive maintenance capabilities within one to two years. The vision includes performance curves for every appliance make and model, with data-driven recommendations for repair versus replacement.

“Most likely, what there will be is performance curves on every make and model that exists out there, the frequency of failure, the annual spend per unit to maintain,” he says. “There’s going to be a point where it’s just like, plan on changing it out in that year.”

By leveraging this data, property managers could better anticipate maintenance needs, reducing unexpected failures and improving tenant satisfaction.

Connecting Maintenance to the C-Suite

Perhaps most significantly, this data-driven approach to maintenance is raising the profile of the function within property management organizations. For the first time, maintenance decisions can be directly linked to financial outcomes that matter to CFOs and asset managers.

“This is the first time that we’re actually connecting maintenance to the CFO,” Hespen observes. “Maintenance has kind of been this patronized thing, we love our maintenance people, they’re super great. But now when CFOs start caring about how maintenance runs because it drastically alters the return of the asset, they’re going to get a lot more involved in this business.”

This shift is especially relevant as many multifamily properties face tough refinancing conditions and can no longer rely on rent increases to improve performance. Properties that can show measurable improvements in tenant retention through operational excellence may gain a competitive edge in both tenant attraction and capital markets.

Market Context and Future Outlook

These insights come at a time when the multifamily sector is dealing with broader market challenges. With rent growth limited and many properties struggling with capital stack issues, operational improvements are one of the few levers available to property managers.

“Hard economies force us to deal with problems,” Hespen says. “This has been a problem for a long time, but now it’s a really important one. When we figure it out and the good times return, we’ll be in a much better position.”

As the industry continues to digitize and gather more operational data, the ability to make evidence-based decisions about maintenance operations will likely become a standard advantage. Properties that can demonstrate superior tenant retention through data-driven maintenance strategies may be better positioned for operational success and capital market opportunities.

From Necessary Expense to Strategic Tool

The research marks a shift from viewing maintenance as a necessary expense to understanding it as a strategic tool for asset optimization, a perspective that could change how the industry approaches property operations in an increasingly data-driven market.

Instead of seeing maintenance as a reactive function, property managers are now equipped to use it proactively to influence tenant behavior and financial outcomes. By prioritizing repairs that have the most significant impact on retention, improving assignment speed, and optimizing communication, operators can directly influence the bottom line.

For example, when a new tenant moves in, properties can flag maintenance requests for issues known to increase churn risk—such as air conditioning or plumbing problems—and ensure these are handled with extra care. Assigning the most experienced technicians or providing immediate updates to tenants can make a measurable difference in renewal rates.

At the same time, by collecting and analyzing data on appliance and system performance, properties can move toward predictive maintenance. This approach enables them to replace or repair items before they fail, further reducing the risk of early tenant dissatisfaction.

The Role of Communication

The new findings about communication challenge long-held beliefs in the industry. Rather than overwhelming tenants with frequent updates or leaving them in the dark, finding the right balance is essential. Effective communication keeps tenants informed and reassured without signaling that there are underlying issues.

Training maintenance teams to communicate clearly and efficiently, using digital tools to track and manage touchpoints, and monitoring tenant feedback can help properties stay within the optimal range. This focus on communication quality can enhance the overall tenant experience and reduce unnecessary turnover.

A Competitive Advantage in a Challenging Market

As market conditions remain difficult and rent growth stalls, the ability to retain tenants becomes even more valuable. Reducing turnover not only preserves income but also lowers costs associated with vacancy, marketing, and unit preparation.

Properties that can show a consistent record of high tenant retention through improved maintenance operations will likely be more attractive to both tenants and investors. In an environment where capital is limited and refinancing is challenging, demonstrating operational excellence can make a property stand out.

Looking Ahead

The future of property maintenance is increasingly data-driven. As technology continues to evolve, property managers will have more tools to predict, prioritize, and optimize maintenance activities. The integration of maintenance with financial decision-making at the executive level marks a new era for the industry.

By embracing these insights and investing in better maintenance processes, property managers can not only improve tenant satisfaction but also enhance the financial performance and long-term value of their assets. The industry’s shift to treating maintenance as a strategic lever, rather than a simple necessity, may prove to be one of the most important developments in multifamily operations in the years ahead.